The chemtrail conspiracy theory is fairly simple. It is the belief that those white, fluffy trails left behind by airplanes are not condensation trails left by super-hot exhaust gases hitting cold air in the upper atmosphere. Instead, the trails are chemicals being sprayed by the nefarious “they” of conspiracy beliefs in an effort to meet their evil goals. Some believers say “they” want to placate us all and make us less aware of bad things in the world. Others say it is an effort to geoengineer the planet by accelerating or decelerating global climate change. This is just a sampling though and I am sure there are other reasons people think “they” are spraying chemicals.
My awareness of the chemtrail conspiracy theory started in my first year of college. A person I dated introduced me to the conspiracy belief and consistently pointed out contrails while fretting over what horrible chemicals must have been sprayed moments before.
At first I found the conspiracy interesting. I could see with my own two eyes that some trails were different from others. Surely, that meant that the trails were somehow different. Plus, the government had huge numbers of planes and chemicals at their disposal, why wouldn’t they try to dump the excess in the atmosphere or try to dose us with something?
And that series of questions led me to realize the fatal flaw of the chemtrail conspiracy theory. The planes are simply too far away and too high to effectively dose or spray anything that affects people. Presuming that the planes fly at about 30-35,000 feet, that means there is easily 6+ miles of air between me on the ground and any plane not directly overhead. That is 6+ miles of mixing, diluting, and moving that the supposed chemical would need to get through before I inhaled it.
That distance means that any agent sprayed needs to be effective at incredibly small doses. My back of the envelope calculations at the time said parts-per-billion was a good estimate. Fifteen years later and with a bit more math under my belt, I realize that I was off by a few orders of magnitude at the least. I don’t think the numbers needed to express this dilution even have names, at least not names that make sense to non-mathematicians.
There is a second issue as well with the chemtrail conspiracy theory. A lack of evidence beyond the trails themselves. No whistleblowers have come forward, no service manuals for the dispersal hardware has been leaked, and no one has come forward saying they funded or worked for the program.
Ultimately, scale is what brought down the chemtrail conspiracy theory for me. The scale of human resources would mean someone somewhere would have spoken up over the years, but there weren’t even deathbed confessions that could be verified. Likewise, the number of planes and chemical tanks needed would mean thousands if not millions of tons of the nefarious chemicals would be needed in order to effectively dose the population, affect climates, or otherwise be notable.
For me, these questions could not be adequately answered by my date, nor by internet sleuths I interacted with at the time. Everything I could find was more easily and simply explained by weather effects and condensation trails. No need for the hidden fleets of planes, illicit chemicals, or vast network of conspirators operating in the shadows was needed.
Now, what does my experience tell us about being less wrong and engaging in critical thinking? Put simply, it is one of the times where facts and logic helped someone leave a conspiracy belief behind. For me, the evidence did not support the belief, so I abandoned the belief. This will not work for everyone though.
In my experiences online, I have sometime run into conspiracy believers who hold the chemtrail conspiracy belief. For some, the lack of evidence is noted. However, for others I have been told that the lack of evidence is evidence of the coverup. Put simply, “They” are hiding the conspiracy so well that there is no evidence to be found by us normal folks. This of course, introduces a problem: If the conspiracy is so well hidden, why and how do we know it is happening?
That question is often met with scoffing or snarky replies online, but it is a crucial one. For some people, the conspiracy belief is the preferred belief, regardless of the evidence. There is a backwards flow of logic to reach that preferred conclusion. When that occurs, I suggest we try to understand why the person prefers the conspiracy belief. We can then engage them in that way.
For instance, perhaps the person wants to be unique, and the chemtrail conspiracy theory helps them meet that need. Or perhaps they see injustices in the world and think someone must be working to stop the people from seeing and acting against those injustices. Contrails can be an easy target then since they are odd looking and show up anywhere.
While I now consider chemtrails an interesting idea that I do not believe in, I can understand and appreciate that others may be nervous when they see large plumes of an unknown substance behind airplanes. While I am comfortable acknowledging these trails as nothing but condensation, I can also see that more nervous folks may not immediately share my view. When that happens, I can help them critically analyze their belief and challenge it.
References:
Tingley, D. & Wagner, G. (2017) Solar geoengineering and the chemtrails conspiracy on social media. Palgrave Communications. 3(12). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-017-0014-3
RationalWiki Article for a quick and bit tongue-in-cheek read